Greetings to all here are the links to the NYSIO report and some thoughts about what I got out of it.
NYSIO Releases Indian Point Energy Center Retirement Analysis
This short press release explains what they are doing. Has link to Generator Deactivation Assessment Indian Point Energy Center. It also has a contact number for David Flannigan for more info.
Link to Generator Deactivation Assessment Indian Point Energy Center
This above two documents are not in Power Trends New York’s Evolving Electric Grid 2017. http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/media_room/publications_presentations/Power_Trends/Power_Trends/2017_Power_Trends.pdf
That is most likely part of the confusion in the press and elsewhere. That and the fact that uninformed reporters have not explored the loss of power criteria which is once in ten years! I have gone through Power Trends quickly and cannot claim to understand it all. There is a lot there to make us all unhappy and some promising information in regard to our “emerging grid.” I encourage others to take a look at it and just to focus on what seems to be relevant chapters. I made my own index and will print it up when I get back.
What we need to focus on is the Generator Deactivation Assessment Indian Point Energy Center report. Not the Power Trends. It is only 5 pages and not a hard read. It is NYISO signing off on Indian Point.
Look at the Base Case Findings on page 3 for a good quote.
It basically says that the reliability criterion is met without Indian Point for the sturdy period. Base case system conditions need to be looked at carefully. And I am completely out of time. It is not clear to me but I think this may include plants currently under construction. The criteria are one day in ten years Loss of Load Expectation. LOLE. Not a rolling blackout, not all the lights going out when the reactor shuts down. One day of a shortage in 10 years. “Without IPEC, no transmission security-related Need was identified in the Study Period for the base case assumption.” If the base case does include current gas generation we need to ignore it and focus on Scenario Findings.
Scenario Findings Page 3
This evaluates the reliability of the system without the three major generators, Bayonne Uprate, CPV and Cricket Valley. A ten year horizon is used. There is a shortage for the LOLE criteria starting in 2021. The shortage does increase through 2027. This is basically what we have been saying since the 2015 Power Trends came out. Now they are saying 600 MW instead of the 500 mentioned then.
HOWEVER, THIS IS IF NO OTHER MITIGATING MEASURES ARE TAKEN.
“Resource needs could potentially be met by combinations of solutions including generation, transmission, energy efficiency, and demand response.
Which is exactly what we have always maintained. As you may know our grid is divided into sections. G, H, I, J are most of the Lower Hudson Valley and that is where additional measures must be taken. This has to do with transmission and the congestion zone. Ä 200 MW generic addition, with any of the above measures, anywhere within these zones by 2023 would resolve the deficiency through the five year horizon the NYSIO is using. Past 2027 it requires from 400 to 600 MW’s depending on what is added. It does not have to be added all in one measure. Table 1: Scenario Compensatory Megawatts shows increments being added from 2021 through 2027 to meet the LOLE criteria and the zones where they need to be added.
“These scenario results demonstrate that, without the expected new generation facilities currently under construction, additional replacement sources of power would be necessary to maintain reliability following deactivation of IPEC.” Report identifies solutions to go without the plants under construction as generation, transmission, energy efficiency, and demand response. Seeing generation in this list is somewhat puzzling, I am wondering if rooftop solar would count in this category? In 2018 the NYSIO will further evaluate reliability without Indian Point in their Reliability Needs Assessment Report.
This assessment shows clearly that deactivating Indian Point will not cause a reliability problem since there are already planned increases in transmission, demand response, solar, wind, and efficiency. We need a list of these measure and must check which zone these measures are in.
More later. Got to get to the airport. Sorry this was written in such haste. I hope it is clarifying. I have to leave the press release to others. Just getting through the information took longer than anticipated. I will post my letter to Laura Walker at WNYC. Some of the same language might work to other reporters. See you all at Convergence in January.
Best regards for a healthy, bright and wonderful holiday.