Russian gas exports

Billion cubic meters; Annually; 2010 to 2030 with 2022 to 2030 projected

Russia will never regain its stature in global oil-and-gas markets following its break with Europe, the International Energy Agency projects, Ben writes.

Why it matters: The findings in IEA’s new World Energy Outlook show how the invasion of Ukraine is upending markets — and will have lasting effects on trade flows that weaken Russia.

  • In 2021 Russia was the world’s largest gas exporter and is a huge source of oil for global markets, too.

Zoom in: The chart above shows Russia’s projected gas exports in last year’s version of the annual IEA report compared to the updated study out this week.

  • They’ve also significantly cut projected Russian oil exports in the years ahead.
  • Under IEA’s long-term outlook to 2050, Russia’s exports never return to 2021 levels.

The big picture: IEA had previously projected a long-term decline in Europe’s reliance as the bloc pursued more climate-friendly sources, but now “the rupture has come with a speed that few imagined possible.”

The analysis notes that Asian buyers will make up some of the difference, but Russia won’t find markets for all the huge volumes that once went to Europe.

  • “Russia’s reorientation to Asian markets is particularly challenging in the case of natural gas, as the market opportunity for large-scale additional deliveries to China is limited.”
  • “Longer-term prospects are weakened by uncertainties over demand, as well as restricted access to international capital and technologies to develop more challenging fields and LNG projects.”

What we’re watching: In the nearer term, the effects of EU restrictions on Russian oil that take effect in December and the G7 efforts to impose a price cap on the country’s barrels.

S&P Global Commodity Insights has more.